RRosternomics
𝕏

Reds CIN

‹ ›

GM: Jim Bowden

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.14× league · TAB -8.2
-8.2TAB — talent above budget25th/28
-2.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)20th/28
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars16th/28
-6.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag21st/28
20%dead money %9th/28
0.500win %15th/28
27.6roster fWAR21st/28
-14surplus $M (value vs cost)24th/28
$37Mpayroll $M10th/28

Roster

CFEric Davis 115GThomas Howard 40GCurtis Goodwin 28G
LFEric Owens 52GThomas Howard 51GKevin Mitchell 32G
RFReggie Sanders 80GThomas Howard 32GChad Mottola 30G
SSBarry Larkin 151GJeff Branson 38GWillie Greene 1G
2BBret Boone 141GJeff Branson 31GLenny Harris 8G
3BWillie Greene 74GJeff Branson 64GChris Sabo 43G
1BHal Morris 140GLenny Harris 16GEduardo Perez 8G
STARTERSJohn Smiley 4.8WARDave Burba 2.2WARMark Portugal 1.7WARPete Schourek 1.2WARKevin Jarvis 0.5WAR
CJoe Oliver 97GEddie Taubensee 94GBrook Fordyce 4G
BULLPEN★ Jeff Brantley 44svJeff Shaw 0hHector Carrasco 0hLee Smith 0hJohnny Ruffin 0hScott Service 0hTim Pugh 0hMarcus Moore 0h
CJoe Oliver 97 · Eddie Taubensee 94 · Brook Fordyce 4
1BHal Morris 140 · Lenny Harris 16 · Eduardo Perez 8
2BBret Boone 141 · Jeff Branson 31 · Lenny Harris 8
3BWillie Greene 74 · Jeff Branson 64 · Chris Sabo 43
SSBarry Larkin 151 · Jeff Branson 38 · Willie Greene 1
LFEric Owens 52 · Thomas Howard 51 · Kevin Mitchell 32
CFEric Davis 115 · Thomas Howard 40 · Curtis Goodwin 28
RFReggie Sanders 80 · Thomas Howard 32 · Chad Mottola 30
SPJohn Smiley 4.8 · Dave Burba 2.2 · Mark Portugal 1.7 · Pete Schourek 1.2 · Kevin Jarvis 0.5
BP★ Jeff Brantley 44 · Jeff Shaw 0 · Hector Carrasco 0 · Lee Smith 0 · Johnny Ruffin 0 · Scott Service 0 · Tim Pugh 0 · Marcus Moore 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1996 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Barry Larkin 32 FA-elig 1526.8 5.7 +0.1
John Smiley 31 FA-elig 354.8 5.0 -1.0
Eric Davis 34 FA-elig 1293.4 0.8 +2.1
Reggie Sanders 28 arb 812.7 3.6 -1.3
Hal Morris 31 FA-elig 1422.6 1.6 +0.6
Dave Burba 29 FA-elig 342.2 1.1 +0.8
Mark Portugal 33 FA-elig 281.7 4.3 -2.9
Kevin Mitchell↔ BOS 34 FA-elig 371.6 0.7 +0.7
Pete Schourek 27 arb 131.2 3.3 -2.3
Jeff Shaw 29 FA-elig 781.2 0.5 +0.5
Jeff Brantley 32 FA-elig 661.1 1.9 -0.9
Eddie Taubensee 27 arb 1081.0 0.6 +0.2
Joe Oliver 30 FA-elig 1060.8 0.7 -0.1
Chris Sabo 34 FA-elig 540.7 0.2 +0.4
Kevin Jarvis 26 – 240.5 – –
Willie Greene 24 arb 1150.5 0.1 +0.3
Mike Morgan↔ STL 36 FA-elig 50.4 0.3 +0.1
Eduardo Perez 26 arb 180.3 0.1 +0.1
Jeff Branson 29 arb 1290.2 0.4 -0.2
Brook Fordyce 26 – 40.2 – –
Curt Lyons 21 – 30.2 – –
Lenny Harris 31 FA-elig 1250.1 0.6 -0.4
Lee Smith↔ ANA 38 FA-elig 430.1 1.7 -1.6
Hector Carrasco 26 pre-arb 560.1 0.2 -0.1
Bret Boone 27 arb 1420.0 0.7 -0.7
Jerry Spradlin 29 – 10.0 – –
Scott Sullivan 25 – 7-0.0 – –
Keith Mitchell 26 – 11-0.0 – –
Pedro Martinez↔ NYM 27 – 4-0.1 – –
Scott Service 29 FA-elig 34-0.1 0.1 -0.2
Derek Lilliquist 30 – 5-0.1 – –
Mike Kelly 26 pre-arb 19-0.1 0.1 -0.2
Johnny Ruffin 24 arb 49-0.1 0.2 -0.3
Tim Belk 26 – 7-0.1 – –
Steve Gibralter 23 pre-arb 2-0.1 0.1 -0.2
Xavier Hernandez↔ HOU 30 FA-elig 3-0.2 0.0 -0.2
Marcus Moore 25 arb 23-0.2 0.1 -0.3
Chuck McElroy↔ ANA 28 FA-elig 12-0.2 0.2 -0.4
Thomas Howard 31 FA-elig 121-0.2 0.7 -0.8
Mike Remlinger 30 arb 19-0.2 0.1 -0.3
Roger Salkeld 25 arb 29-0.3 0.1 -0.4
Vince Coleman 34 FA-elig 33-0.3 0.5 -0.8
Tim Pugh↔ KCR 29 arb 10-0.4 0.1 -0.4
Chad Mottola 24 – 35-0.5 – –
Giovanni Carrara↔ TOR 28 pre-arb 8-0.5 0.0 -0.5
Eric Anthony↔ COL 28 FA-elig 47-0.6 0.6 -1.1
Curtis Goodwin 23 pre-arb 49-0.9 0.1 -0.9
Eric Owens 25 pre-arb 88-1.7 0.1 -1.5

Key additions (new vs 1995)

PlayerfWAR
Eric Davis3.4
Kevin Mitchell1.6
Jeff Shaw1.2
Joe Oliver0.8
Chris Sabo0.7
Mike Morgan0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 1995)

Player1995 fWAR
Ron Gant3.4
Jerome Walton1.9
Benito Santiago1.8
Jose Rijo1.5
David Wells1.5
Mark Lewis0.8

Current & Historical Payroll

1996 payroll
$37.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 1996, 1996–2002. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (21)

PlayerAgeSvc1996199719981999200020012002
Barry Larkin3210.000$5.7M$5.3M$5.3M$5.3M$5.3M$9.0M$9.0M
John Smiley3110.000$5.0M$2.9MFREE AGENT
Mark Portugal3311.000$4.3MFREE AGENT
Jeff Brantley328.000$1.9M$2.8MFREE AGENT
Lee Smith3816.000$1.7MFREE AGENT
Hal Morris318.000$1.6M$3.1MFREE AGENT$450k$298k
Dave Burba296.000$1.1M$2.1MFREE AGENT
Eric Davis3412.000$750kFREE AGENT
Joe Oliver307.000$708k$375kFREE AGENT
Thomas Howard316.000$675kFREE AGENT
Kevin Mitchell3412.000$656kFREE AGENT
Eric Anthony287.000$610kFREE AGENT
Lenny Harris318.000$550k$650k$440kFREE AGENT
Vince Coleman3411.000$500kFREE AGENT
Jeff Shaw296.000$450k$650k$347kFREE AGENT
Mike Morgan3618.000$272k$500kFREE AGENT
Chris Sabo348.000$200kFREE AGENT
Chuck McElroy287.000$189kFREE AGENT
Scott Service298.000$140kFREE AGENT
Xavier Hernandez307.000$30kFREE AGENT
Derek Lilliquist307.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (15)

PlayerAgeSvc1996199719981999200020012002
Reggie Sanders285.000$3.6MFREE AGENT
Pete Schourek275.000$3.3MFREE AGENT
Bret Boone274.000$725kARB 3FREE AGENT
Eddie Taubensee275.000$625kFREE AGENT
Jeff Branson294.000$425kARB 3FREE AGENT
Johnny Ruffin243.000$195kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eduardo Perez263.000$140kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marcus Moore253.000$135kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Remlinger305.000$130kFREE AGENT
Willie Greene244.000$130kARB 3FREE AGENT
Roger Salkeld253.000$120kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Pugh294.000$67kARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Martinez273.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keith Mitchell265.000—FREE AGENT
Jerry Spradlin293.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (12)

PlayerAgeSvc1996199719981999200020012002
Hector Carrasco262.000$195kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Curtis Goodwin231.000$145kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Kelly262.000$125kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Owens251.000$109kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Gibralter231.000$109kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Giovanni Carrara281.000$48kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Belk26–—
Brook Fordyce261.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Jarvis262.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Curt Lyons21–—
Chad Mottola24–—
Scott Sullivan251.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Reds 1996; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.