CIN⇄DET

CINCIN Jim Bowden net +$2.4M net +0.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $30M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 1996 odds 4% → 4% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Yuri SanchezSS·22y·S/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#54 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Randy Smith net −$2.4M net -0.1

received +$4.0M+$1.6M ± $10M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.0 ± 1 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 1996 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Gregg OlsonP·29y·R/R

+$3.6M+$1.8M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.0± 1 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.37/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

0.65/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.