CIN⇄ANA⇄TBR

CINCIN Nick Krall net +$0.8M net +0.6

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $2M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2026 odds 0.9% → 1.0% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brock BurkeP·29y·L/L

−$0.3M−$0.3M± $2M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

0.40/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr × 0.15 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Perry Minasian net −$0.8M net -0.2

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $13M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.8 ± 2 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2026 odds 0.8% → 0.9% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Josh LoweOF·28y·L/R

+$6.2M+$6.2M± $13M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.8± 2 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.30/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.82/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.72 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Erik Neander net +$0.0M net -0.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Chris ClarkP·24y·R/R

+$1.9M+$1.9M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#147 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.86 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Gavin Lux2B·28y·L/R

−$0.2M−$0.2M± $3M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.1± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.26/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.85/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr × 0.15 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.