RRosternomics

Cubs CHC

GM: Larry Himes

Overview

FORCED-SPEND → steady
expensive & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.04× league · TAB -8.4
-8.4TAB — talent above budget20th/26
-4.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)16th/26
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars14th/26
-9.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag26th/26
38%dead money %15th/26
0.481win %14th/26
26.3roster fWAR20th/26
-9surplus $M (value vs cost)19th/26
$31Mpayroll $M11th/26

Roster

CFDoug Dascenzo 80GSammy Sosa 67GDwight Smith 27G
LFDerrick May 98GKal Daniels 49GLuis Salazar 33G
RFAndre Dawson 139GDoug Dascenzo 28GDwight Smith 22G
SSRey Sanchez 68GJose Vizcaino 50GAlex Arias 30G
2BRyne Sandberg 157GDoug Strange 12GJose Vizcaino 5G
3BSteve Buechele 143GLuis Salazar 40GDoug Strange 33G
1BMark Grace 157GHector Villanueva 6GLuis Salazar 5G
STARTERSGreg Maddux 7.2WARMike Morgan 2.8WARFrank Castillo 2.1WARMike Harkey 0.3WARJeff Robinson -0.2WAR
CJoe Girardi 86GRick Wilkins 73GHector Villanueva 28G
BULLPEN Bob Scanlan 14svChuck McElroy 0hPaul Assenmacher 0hKen Patterson 0hHeathcliff Slocumb 0hDave Smith 0hJeff Hartsock 0hJessie Hollins 0h
CJoe Girardi 86 · Rick Wilkins 73 · Hector Villanueva 28
1BMark Grace 157 · Hector Villanueva 6 · Luis Salazar 5
2BRyne Sandberg 157 · Doug Strange 12 · Jose Vizcaino 5
3BSteve Buechele 143 · Luis Salazar 40 · Doug Strange 33
SSRey Sanchez 68 · Jose Vizcaino 50 · Alex Arias 30
LFDerrick May 98 · Kal Daniels 49 · Luis Salazar 33
CFDoug Dascenzo 80 · Sammy Sosa 67 · Dwight Smith 27
RFAndre Dawson 139 · Doug Dascenzo 28 · Dwight Smith 22
SPGreg Maddux 7.2 · Mike Morgan 2.8 · Frank Castillo 2.1 · Mike Harkey 0.3 · Jeff Robinson -0.2
BP Bob Scanlan 14 · Chuck McElroy 0 · Paul Assenmacher 0 · Ken Patterson 0 · Heathcliff Slocumb 0 · Dave Smith 0 · Jeff Hartsock 0 · Jessie Hollins 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1992 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Ryne Sandberg 32 FA-elig 1587.4 2.1 +3.6
Greg Maddux 26 FA-elig 357.2 4.2 +1.4
Mark Grace 28 arb 1584.4 2.3 +1.2
Mike Morgan 32 FA-elig 342.8 2.9 -0.7
Andre Dawson 37 FA-elig 1432.7 3.3 -1.2
Frank Castillo 23 pre-arb 332.1 0.1 +1.5
Rick Wilkins 25 pre-arb 832.0 0.1 +1.4
Rey Sanchez 24 740.9
Chuck McElroy 24 arb 720.9 0.2 +0.5
Danny Jackson↔ PIT 30 FA-elig 190.8 1.5 -0.8
Sammy Sosa 23 arb 670.8 0.2 +0.4
Dwight Smith 28 arb 1090.7 0.5 +0.1
Paul Assenmacher 31 FA-elig 700.7 1.9 -1.4
Steve Buechele↔ PIT 30 FA-elig 650.5 1.2 -0.8
Bob Scanlan 25 pre-arb 690.4 0.1 +0.2
Joe Girardi 27 arb 910.4 0.3 -0.0
Shawon Dunston 29 FA-elig 180.3 2.5 -2.2
Alex Arias 24 320.3
Mike Harkey 25 arb 70.3 0.2 -0.0
Dave Smith 37 FA-elig 110.1 2.5 -2.4
Derrick May 23 124-0.0
Jorge Pedre 25 4-0.1
Jessie Hollins 22 4-0.2
Jeff Hartsock 25 4-0.2
Chico Walker↔ NYM 34 FA-elig 19-0.2 0.0 -0.2
Jeff Robinson 31 FA-elig 49-0.2 0.6 -0.7
Jeff Kunkel 30 20-0.2
Heathcliff Slocumb 26 pre-arb 30-0.2 0.1 -0.3
Dennis Rasmussen↔ KCR 33 3-0.2
Jose Vizcaino 24 arb 86-0.3 0.2 -0.4
Luis Salazar 36 FA-elig 98-0.3 0.6 -0.9
Kal Daniels↔ LAD 28 FA-elig 48-0.3 1.4 -1.7
Fernando Ramsey 26 18-0.4
Doug Dascenzo 28 arb 139-0.5 0.2 -0.6
Hector Villanueva 27 pre-arb 51-0.6 0.2 -0.6
Shawn Boskie 25 pre-arb 23-0.7 0.2 -0.7
Jim Bullinger 26 39-0.7
Jerome Walton 26 arb 30-0.8 0.5 -1.1
Gary Scott 23 pre-arb 36-1.0 0.1 -0.9
Ken Patterson 27 arb 32-1.1 0.6 -1.5
Doug Strange 28 52-1.2

Key additions (new vs 1991)

PlayerfWAR
Mike Morgan2.8
Sammy Sosa0.8
Steve Buechele0.5
Alex Arias0.3
Jorge Pedre-0.1
Jessie Hollins-0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 1991)

Player1991 fWAR
George Bell1.7
Les Lancaster1.6
Rick Sutcliffe1.2
Mike Bielecki0.6
Yorkis Perez0.1
Ced Landrum0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

1992 payroll
$31.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 1992, 1992–1998. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (15)

PlayerAgeSvc1992199319941995199619971998
Greg Maddux266.000$4.2MFREE AGENT
Andre Dawson3716.000$3.3MFREE AGENT
Mike Morgan3214.000$2.9M$3.4M$3.4M$2.7MFREE AGENT$1.0M
Dave Smith3712.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Shawon Dunston297.000$2.5M$3.4M$2.4M$3.8MFREE AGENT$2.0M
Ryne Sandberg3211.000$2.1M$6.0M$6.0MFREE AGENT$2.3M$3.2M
Paul Assenmacher316.000$1.9M$1.7MFREE AGENT
Danny Jackson309.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Kal Daniels286.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
Steve Buechele307.000$1.2M$2.9M$2.5MFREE AGENT
Luis Salazar3612.000$600kFREE AGENT
Jeff Robinson318.000$589kFREE AGENT
Chico Walker3412.000$41kFREE AGENT
Jeff Kunkel308.000FREE AGENT
Dennis Rasmussen339.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc1992199319941995199619971998
Mark Grace284.000$2.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Ken Patterson274.000$640kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jerome Walton263.000$525kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dwight Smith283.000$460kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Girardi273.000$300kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Doug Dascenzo284.000$240kARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Harkey254.000$230kARB 3FREE AGENT
Chuck McElroy243.000$222kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sammy Sosa233.000$180kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Vizcaino243.000$177kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Doug Strange283.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (15)

PlayerAgeSvc1992199319941995199619971998
Hector Villanueva272.000$200kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Boskie252.000$185kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Frank Castillo231.000$150kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bob Scanlan251.000$150kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Heathcliff Slocumb261.000$150kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rick Wilkins251.000$140kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gary Scott231.000$116kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Arias240.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Bullinger260.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Hartsock25
Jessie Hollins22
Derrick May232.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Pedre25
Fernando Ramsey26
Rey Sanchez241.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cubs 1992; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3