MIL⇄CHC

MILMIL Sal Bando net +$1.6M net +0.2

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $23M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.8 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 1992 odds 20% → 21% (+0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ced LandrumOF·28y·L/R

−$0.3M−$0.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.8± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.22/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.64 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Larry Himes net −$1.6M net -0.2

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $17M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.0 ± 2 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 1992 odds 3% → 3% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeff KunkelSS·30y·R/R

+$2.6M+$2.6M± $17M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.0± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.44/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.75 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.