SFG⇄PHI

SFGSFG Buster Posey net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $79M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.2 ± 10 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2026 odds 0.0% → 0.0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Marty GairP·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $56M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 7 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#403 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.88 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Ramon MarquezP·20y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $56M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 7 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.88 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

PHIPHI Dave Dombrowski net +$0.0M net +0.0

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $18M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2026 odds 74.3% → 75.6% (+1.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Luis Arráez1B/2B·29y·L/R

+$0.6M+$0.6M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.7± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

1.97/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr × 0.31 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Caleb KilianP·29y·R/R

−$1.3M−$1.3M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.4± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#236 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.33/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.28 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (Baseball America rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± band is the uncertainty — wide for unproven prospects, tight for established veterans. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

Historically these expected values are unbiased and land within ±2 WAR of reality 75% of the time — yet the side the model favors actually comes out ahead only 53% of the time. The grade is a calibrated bet, not a prediction. Why trades are an efficient market →