Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | 1.1 | BAL | Jackson Holliday | IF 2B | 19 HS | L/R | 5'11" | 200 | $8.19M | 46% | — | Mike Elias | 1.1 | -2.9 | 49.9±4.0 |
| 2022 | 2 | 1.2 | ARI | Druw Jones | OF OF | 19 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 180 | $8.19M | 53% | Ian Rebhan | Mike Hazen | 0.0 | -1.7 | 14.3±4.2 |
| 2022 | 3 | 1.3 | TEX | Kumar Rocker | P P | 23 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 245 | $5.2M | 49% | Kip Fagg | Jon Daniels | 1.0 | -1.5 | 9.8±3.9 |
| 2022 | 4 | 1.4 | PIT | Termarr Johnson | IF SS | 18 HS | L/R | 5'7" | 201 | $7.22M | 50% | Joe Dellicarri | Ben Cherington | 0.0 | -3.6 | 18.9±3.9 |
| 2022 | 5 | 1.5 | WSN | Elijah Green | OF OF | 19 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 225 | $6.5M | 51% | — | Michael Rizzo | 0.0 | -0.6 | 8.0±4.1 |
| 2022 | 6 | 1.6 | MIA | Jacob Berry | IF 3B | 21 COLL | S/R | 5'11" | 212 | $6.0M | 53% | D J Svihlik | Kim Ng | 0.0 | -2.4 | 14.8±4.0 |
| 2022 | 7 | 1.7 | CHC | Cade Horton | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 211 | $4.45M | 38% | Dan Kantrovitz | Jed Hoyer | 2.2 | -0.4 | 7.9±3.8 |
| 2022 | 8 | 1.8 | MIN | Brooks Lee | IF SS | 21 COLL | S/R | 6'0" | 205 | $5.67M | 51% | Sean Johnson | Derek Falvey | 0.4 | -2.0 | 14.8±3.8 |
| 2022 | 9 | 1.9 | KCR | Gavin Cross | OF OF | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'2" | 210 | $5.2M | 47% | Dan Ontiveros | J.J. Picollo | 0.0 | -2.2 | 8.5±3.9 |
| 2022 | 10 | 1.10 | COL | Gabriel Hughes | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 238 | $4.0M | 28% | — | Bill Schmidt | 0.0 | -2.6 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2022 | 11 | 1.11 | NYM | Kevin Parada | C C | 21 COLL | R/R | 5'11" | 197 | $5.02M | 34% | Marc Tramuta | Billy Eppler | 0.0 | -1.7 | 17.0±4.1 |
| 2022 | 12 | 1.12 | DET | Jace Jung | IF 3B | 22 COLL | L/R | 5'11" | 205 | $4.59M | 50% | Scott Pleis | Sam Menzin | -0.3 | -2.4 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2022 | 13 | 1.13 | ANA | Zach Neto | IF SS | 21 COLL | R/R | 5'11" | 185 | $3.5M | 42% | Matt Swanson | Perry Minasian | 8.8 | +6.6 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2022 | 14 | 1.14 | NYM | Jett Williams | IF SS | 19 HS | R/R | 5'7" | 179 | $3.9M | 27% | Marc Tramuta | Billy Eppler | 0.0 | -0.4 | 7.8±3.8 |
| 2022 | 15 | 1.15 | SDP | Dylan Lesko | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 195 | $3.9M | 33% | — | AJ Preller | 0.0 | -0.6 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2022 | 16 | 1.16 | CLE | Chase DeLauter | OF RF | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'3" | 235 | $3.75M | 32% | Paul Gillispie | Chris Antonetti | 1.2 | +0.5 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 2022 | 17 | 1.17 | PHI | Justin Crawford | OF CF | 18 HS | L/R | 6'2" | 188 | $3.89M | 52% | Brian Barber | Dave Dombrowski | 0.3 | -0.2 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2022 | 18 | 1.18 | CIN | Cam Collier | IF 3B | 18 HS | L/R | 6'1" | 210 | $5.0M | 41% | Joe Katuska | Nick Krall | 0.0 | -0.4 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2022 | 19 | 1.19 | OAK | Daniel Susac | C C | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 210 | $3.53M | 37% | Eric Kubota | David Forst | 0.5 | +0.2 | 2.0±3.9 |
| 2022 | 20 | 1.20 | ATL | Owen Murphy | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 190 | $2.56M | 22% | Dana Brown | Alex Anthopoulos | 0.0 | -0.4 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2022 | 21 | 1.21 | SEA | Cole Young | IF 2B | 19 HS | L/R | 5'10" | 180 | $3.3M | 39% | Scott Hunter | Jerry Dipoto | 0.6 | +0.2 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2022 | 22 | 1.22 | STL | Cooper Hjerpe | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'3" | 200 | $3.18M | 41% | Jamal Strong | John Mozeliak | 0.0 | -1.3 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2022 | 23 | 1.23 | TOR | Brandon Barriera | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 6'2" | 180 | $3.6M | 38% | Shane Farrell | Ross Atkins | 0.0 | -0.4 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2022 | 24 | 1.24 | BOS | Mikey Romero | IF SS | 18 HS | L/R | 5'11" | 175 | $2.3M | 24% | Paul Toboni | Chaim Bloom | 0.0 | -0.4 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2022 | 25 | 1.25 | NYY | Spencer Jones | OF RF | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'7" | 240 | $2.88M | 36% | — | Brian Cashman | -0.2 | -0.9 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 2022 | 26 | 1.26 | CHW | Noah Schultz | P P | 19 HS | L/L | 6'10" | 240 | $2.8M | 37% | Mike Shirley | Kenny Williams | 0.4 | +0.3 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 2022 | 27 | 1.27 | MIL | Eric Brown Jr. | IF SS | 22 COLL | R/R | 5'10" | 190 | $2.05M | 27% | — | David Stearns | 0.0 | -0.4 | 3.8±3.7 |
| 2022 | 28 | 1.28 | HOU | Drew Gilbert | OF CF | 22 COLL | L/L | 5'9" | 195 | $2.5M | 31% | Evan Brannon | James Click | -0.1 | -0.7 | 3.8±3.7 |
| 2022 | 29 | 1.29 | TBR | Xavier Isaac | IF 1B | 19 HS | L/L | 6'3" | 240 | $2.55M | 30% | Rob Metzler | Erik Neander | 0.0 | -0.3 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2022 | 30 | 1.30 | SFG | Reggie Crawford | IF 1B | 22 COLL | L/L | 6'4" | 255 | $2.3M | 33% | Michael Holmes | Farhan Zaidi | 0.0 | -0.4 | 3.8±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.