BAL⇄WSN

BALBAL Syd Thrift net +$1.6M net +1.8

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $21M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2001 odds 0% → 1% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jorge JulioP·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Jim Beattie net −$1.6M net -1.8

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $18M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · -1.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2001 odds 0% → 0% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ryan Minor3B·27y·R/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized -1.2

Prior

#189 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -3.4/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

-0.76/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.