NYM⇄LAD

NYMNYM Jim Duquette net +$28.0M net +0.0

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $38M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 3.7 ± 5 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2003 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kole StrayhornP·20y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#130 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Víctor DíazOF·21y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#1107 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jose DíazP·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

LADLAD Dan Evans net −$28.0M net +0.0

received −$8.8M−$11.2M ± $15M expected surplus · −$31.2M realized received 2.2 ± 2 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2003 odds 28% → 27% (-0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeromy BurnitzOF·34y·L/R

−$8.4M−$11.4M± $15M exp surplusrealized −$31.2M 2.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.24/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.1/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

1.55/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.