TEX⇄SDP

TEXTEX John Hart net +$1.6M net +0.2

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2002 odds 5% → 5% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jason Moore

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net −$1.6M net -0.2

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $21M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.1 ± 3 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2002 odds 1% → 1% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Juan MorenoP·27y·L/L

−$3.2M−$3.2M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.1± 3 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.03/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.80 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.