BOS⇄MIN

BOSBOS Dan Duquette net −$0.8M net +0.1

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $25M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2000 odds 26% → 26% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Midre CummingsOF·28y·L/R

+$4.6M+$4.6M± $25M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.26/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.45/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MINMIN Terry Ryan net +$0.8M net -0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $4M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 2000 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Hector De Los Santos

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $4M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.