NYM⇄ANA

NYMNYM John Ricco net −$18.4M net +0.3

received −$18.4M−$19.2M ± $6M expected surplus · −$21.6M realized received 0.4 ± 1 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2010 odds 5% → 6% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Gary MatthewsOF·35y·B/R

−$18.6M−$19.4M± $6M exp surplusrealized −$21.6M 0.4± 1 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

0.38/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.74 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Tony Reagins net +$18.4M net -0.3

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $6M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2010 odds 4% → 4% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brian StokesP·30y·R/R

−$1.7M−$1.7M± $6M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.0/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

0.07/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.33 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.