TOR⇄MIN

TORTOR Gord Ash net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Francisco ÁlvarezC·-2y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MINMIN Terry Ryan net +$0.0M net +0.0

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $12M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.4 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Mike RomanoP·28y·B/R

−$2.4M−$2.4M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.4± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#85 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.9/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.13/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.55 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.