CIN⇄SEA

CINCIN Bob Quinn net +$55.2M net +4.0

received −$9.6M−$9.6M ± $14M expected surplus · +$67.2M realized received 2.9 ± 2 expected · 8.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 1993 odds 2% → 3% (+1.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kevin MitchellOF·31y·R/R

−$9.8M−$9.8M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$67.2M 2.9± 2 exp WARrealized 8.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.0/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

1.97/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Woody Woodward net −$55.2M net -4.0

received +$20.0M+$20.0M ± $17M expected surplus · +$12.0M realized received 2.3 ± 2 expected · 4.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 1993 odds 52% → 40% (-12.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Norm CharltonP·30y·B/L

+$20.1M+$20.1M± $17M exp surplusrealized +$12.0M 2.3± 2 exp WARrealized 4.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

1.20/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.