MIA⇄SEA

MIAMIA Larry Beinfest net +$11.2M net +0.9

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $26M expected surplus · +$8.0M realized received 0.5 ± 3 expected · 1.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2014 odds 14% → 13% (-1.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Carter CappsP·23y·R/R

−$1.1M−$1.1M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$8.0M 0.5± 3 exp WARrealized 1.7

Prior

#121 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.0/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.10/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Jack Zduriencik net −$11.2M net -0.9

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $17M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.9 ± 2 expected · 0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2014 odds 6% → 7% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Logan Morrison1B/OF·26y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $17M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.9± 2 exp WARrealized 0.8

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.28/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.