SEA⇄NYM

SEASEA Pat Gillick net +$1.6M net +1.0

received +$5.6M+$3.2M ± $15M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 1.9 ± 2 expected · 1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2003 odds 75% → 79% (+4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rey Sánchez2B/SS·35y·R/R

+$5.3M+$3.0M± $15M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 1.9± 2 exp WARrealized 1.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.0/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

1.38/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Jim Duquette net −$1.6M net -1.0

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.8 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2003 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kenny KellyOF·24y·R/R

+$1.2M+$1.2M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.8± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#82 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.6/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.20/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.