RRosternomics

Nationals WSN

GM: Dave Dombrowski

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.46× league · TAB +3.1
+3.1TAB — talent above budget9th/26
-0.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)13th/26
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars14th/26
-4.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag14th/26
29%dead money %13th/26
0.441win %22nd/26
27.4roster fWAR20th/26
+0surplus $M (value vs cost)9th/26
$10Mpayroll $M26th/26

Roster

CFMarquis Grissom 130GDave Martinez 30GKenny Williams 5G
LFIvan Calderon 122GDave Martinez 36GJohn Vander Wal 17G
RFLarry Walker 100GDave Martinez 58GKenny Williams 20G
SSSpike Owen 133GTom Foley 43GBret Barberie 19G
2BDelino DeShields 148GBret Barberie 10GJunior Noboa 6G
3BTim Wallach 149GBret Barberie 10GTom Foley 6G
1BAndres Galarraga 105GLarry Walker 39GTom Foley 31G
STARTERSDennis Martinez 4.3WARChris Nabholz 2.9WARBrian Barnes 0.6WARMark Gardner 0.5WARChris Haney 0.4WAR
CGilberto Reyes 80GMike Fitzgerald 54GRon Hassey 34G
BULLPEN Barry Jones 13svScott Ruskin 0hJeff Fassero 0hMel Rojas 0hSteve Frey 0hDoug Piatt 0hDave Schmidt 0hBill Long 0h
CGilberto Reyes 80 · Mike Fitzgerald 54 · Ron Hassey 34
1BAndres Galarraga 105 · Larry Walker 39 · Tom Foley 31
2BDelino DeShields 148 · Bret Barberie 10 · Junior Noboa 6
3BTim Wallach 149 · Bret Barberie 10 · Tom Foley 6
SSSpike Owen 133 · Tom Foley 43 · Bret Barberie 19
LFIvan Calderon 122 · Dave Martinez 36 · John Vander Wal 17
CFMarquis Grissom 130 · Dave Martinez 30 · Kenny Williams 5
RFLarry Walker 100 · Dave Martinez 58 · Kenny Williams 20
SPDennis Martinez 4.3 · Chris Nabholz 2.9 · Brian Barnes 0.6 · Mark Gardner 0.5 · Chris Haney 0.4
BP Barry Jones 13 · Scott Ruskin 0 · Jeff Fassero 0 · Mel Rojas 0 · Steve Frey 0 · Doug Piatt 0 · Dave Schmidt 0 · Bill Long 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1991 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Dennis Martinez 37 FA-elig 324.3 3.3 -0.8
Larry Walker 24 pre-arb 1373.8 0.2 +2.0
Ivan Calderon 29 FA-elig 1343.5 2.2 -0.1
Chris Nabholz 24 pre-arb 242.9 0.1 +1.6
Spike Owen 30 1392.6
Marquis Grissom 24 1482.1
Bret Barberie 23 572.0
Dave Martinez 26 arb 1241.9 0.1 +1.0
Oil Can Boyd↔ TEX 31 FA-elig 191.7 0.9 +0.1
Delino DeShields 22 1511.6
Jeff Fassero 28 511.3
Gilberto Reyes 27 831.0
Kenny Williams↔ TOR 27 arb 340.7 0.2 +0.2
Brian Barnes 24 pre-arb 280.6 0.1 +0.3
Mark Gardner 29 pre-arb 270.5 0.2 +0.1
Tim Wallach 33 1510.5
Chris Haney 22 160.4
Mel Rojas 24 pre-arb 370.3 0.1 +0.1
Rick Mahler↔ ATL 37 100.3
Ron Hassey 38 520.2
Scott Ruskin 28 pre-arb 640.1 0.1 -0.1
Tim Burke↔ NYM 32 370.1
Eric Bullock 31 730.0
Doug Piatt 25 210.0
Nikco Riesgo 24 40.0
John Vander Wal 25 21-0.1
David Wainhouse 23 2-0.1
Bill Long 31 FA-elig 3-0.1 0.4 -0.4
Nelson Santovenia 29 arb 41-0.2 0.3 -0.4
Dave Schmidt 34 4-0.2
Steve Frey 27 pre-arb 31-0.3 0.2 -0.3
Tom Foley 31 86-0.4
Mike Fitzgerald 30 FA-elig 71-0.4 0.7 -0.9
Barry Jones 28 arb 77-0.4 0.9 -1.1
Ron Darling↔ NYM 30 FA-elig 3-0.4 0.2 -0.4
Junior Noboa 26 67-0.6
Andres Galarraga 30 107-0.9
Bill Sampen 28 pre-arb 43-0.9 0.2 -0.7

Key additions (new vs 1990)

PlayerfWAR
Ivan Calderon3.5
Bret Barberie2.0
Jeff Fassero1.3
Gilberto Reyes1.0
Kenny Williams0.7
Chris Haney0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 1990)

Player1990 fWAR
Kevin Gross2.9
Tim Raines Sr.2.4
Zane Smith2.0
Otis Nixon1.4
Mike Aldrete0.7
Scott Anderson0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

1991 payroll
$10.4M

What the front office was committed to as of 1991, 1991–1997. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (15)

PlayerAgeSvc1991199219931994199519961997
Dennis Martinez3715.000$3.3M$3.3M$2.8MFREE AGENT
Ivan Calderon297.000$2.2M$2.6MFREE AGENT
Oil Can Boyd319.000$919kFREE AGENT
Mike Fitzgerald308.000$700kFREE AGENT
Bill Long316.000$394kFREE AGENT
Ron Darling308.000$184kFREE AGENT
Tim Burke326.000FREE AGENT
Tom Foley318.000$365kFREE AGENT$160k
Andres Galarraga306.000FREE AGENT
Ron Hassey3813.000FREE AGENT
Rick Mahler3712.000FREE AGENT
Junior Noboa267.000FREE AGENT
Spike Owen308.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Dave Schmidt3410.000FREE AGENT
Tim Wallach3311.000$1.9MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (4)

PlayerAgeSvc1991199219931994199519961997
Barry Jones285.000$875kFREE AGENT
Nelson Santovenia294.000$282kARB 3FREE AGENT
Kenny Williams275.000$188kFREE AGENT
Dave Martinez265.000$140kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (19)

PlayerAgeSvc1991199219931994199519961997
Larry Walker242.000$185kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Gardner292.000$185kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Frey272.000$165kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bill Sampen281.000$161kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Ruskin281.000$148kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Nabholz241.000$120kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mel Rojas241.000$115kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Barnes241.000$104kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bret Barberie230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Bullock31
Delino DeShields221.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Fassero280.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marquis Grissom242.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Haney220.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Doug Piatt25
Gilberto Reyes27
Nikco Riesgo24
John Vander Wal250.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Wainhouse230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Nationals 1991; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3