ATL⇄WSN

ATLATL John Schuerholz net +$31.2M net +6.4

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $34M expected surplus · +$31.2M realized received 2.5 ± 4 expected · 6.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 1991 odds 7% → 10% (+3.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Boi RodriguezOF·25y·L/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $32M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#96 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Otis NixonOF·32y·B/R

−$3.5M−$3.5M± $13M exp surplusrealized +$31.2M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 6.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

0.87/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Dave Dombrowski net −$31.2M net -6.4

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $49M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 6 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 1991 odds 6% → 4% (-1.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Keith MorrisonP·21y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $32M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#899 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jimmy KremersC·25y·L/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $37M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 5 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#33 overall draft pick → 0.31/yr

Evidence

recent form -4.4/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

-0.40/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.