PIT⇄BAL

PITPIT Neal Huntington net +$0.0M net +0.0

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $14M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.3 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Zach PhillipsP·29y·L/L

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.3± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#681 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.16/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.43 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Dan Duquette net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$11.2M+$11.2M ± $28M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 3.0 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Kyle LobsteinP·26y·L/L

+$11.0M+$11.0M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 3.0± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#47 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.4/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.61/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.