RRosternomics

Twins MIN

GM: Terry Ryan

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.89× league · TAB -7.4
-7.4TAB — talent above budget16th/28
-3.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)14th/28
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars13th/28
-4.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag17th/28
34%dead money %18th/28
0.469win %16th/28
17.7roster fWAR22nd/28
-8surplus $M (value vs cost)16th/28
$28Mpayroll $M21st/28

Roster

CFAlex Cole 84GShane Mack 24GRich Becker 23G
LFShane Mack 66GPedro Munoz 42GAlex Cole 16G
RFKirby Puckett 95GPedro Munoz 19GDave McCarty 5G
SSPat Meares 79GJeff Reboulet 42GDenny Hocking 10G
2BChuck Knoblauch 109GJeff Reboulet 14GChip Hale 5G
3BScott Leius 95GChip Hale 21GJeff Reboulet 6G
1BKent Hrbek 72GDave McCarty 32GSteve Dunn 12G
STARTERSKevin Tapani 3.4WARScott Erickson 2.2WARPat Mahomes -0.2WARJim Deshaies -0.3WARCarlos Pulido -0.5WAR
CMatt Walbeck 95GDerek Parks 31G
DHDave Winfield 76GKirby Puckett 13GPedro Munoz 11G
BULLPEN Rick Aguilera 23svMark Guthrie 0hCarl Willis 0hMike Trombley 0hDave Stevens 0hBrett Merriman 0hKevin Campbell 0hErik Schullstrom 0h
CMatt Walbeck 95 · Derek Parks 31
1BKent Hrbek 72 · Dave McCarty 32 · Steve Dunn 12
2BChuck Knoblauch 109 · Jeff Reboulet 14 · Chip Hale 5
3BScott Leius 95 · Chip Hale 21 · Jeff Reboulet 6
SSPat Meares 79 · Jeff Reboulet 42 · Denny Hocking 10
LFShane Mack 66 · Pedro Munoz 42 · Alex Cole 16
CFAlex Cole 84 · Shane Mack 24 · Rich Becker 23
RFKirby Puckett 95 · Pedro Munoz 19 · Dave McCarty 5
DHDave Winfield 76 · Kirby Puckett 13 · Pedro Munoz 11
SPKevin Tapani 3.4 · Scott Erickson 2.2 · Pat Mahomes -0.2 · Jim Deshaies -0.3 · Carlos Pulido -0.5
BP Rick Aguilera 23 · Mark Guthrie 0 · Carl Willis 0 · Mike Trombley 0 · Dave Stevens 0 · Brett Merriman 0 · Kevin Campbell 0 · Erik Schullstrom 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1994 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Shane Mack 30 FA-elig 813.8 3.2 +1.2
Chuck Knoblauch 25 arb 1093.7 1.6 +2.6
Kevin Tapani 30 arb 243.4 2.6 +1.3
Kirby Puckett 34 FA-elig 1083.1 5.3 -1.7
Scott Erickson 26 arb 232.2 1.3 +1.2
Alex Cole 28 arb 1051.3 0.4 +1.1
Carl Willis 33 FA-elig 490.9 0.5 +0.5
Rick Aguilera 32 FA-elig 440.8 3.3 -2.3
Jeff Reboulet 30 pre-arb 740.6 0.2 +0.6
Scott Leius 28 arb 970.5 0.3 +0.3
Pedro Munoz 25 arb 750.4 0.6 -0.1
Denny Hocking 24 pre-arb 110.3 0.1 +0.3
Erik Schullstrom 25 pre-arb 90.3 0.1 +0.3
Kevin Campbell 29 140.3
Chip Hale 29 arb 670.2 0.1 +0.1
Mark Guthrie 28 arb 500.2 0.9 -0.6
Rich Becker 22 pre-arb 280.2 0.1 +0.1
Eddie Guardado 23 pre-arb 40.1 0.1 +0.0
Pat Meares 25 pre-arb 800.1 0.2 -0.0
Brett Merriman 27 15-0.0
Dave Stevens 24 pre-arb 24-0.2 0.1 -0.3
Pat Mahomes 23 pre-arb 22-0.2 0.1 -0.4
Steve Dunn 24 14-0.2
Jim Deshaies 34 FA-elig 25-0.3 0.6 -0.9
Kent Hrbek 34 FA-elig 81-0.3 3.1 -3.4
Derek Parks 25 pre-arb 31-0.3 0.1 -0.4
Keith Garagozzo 24 pre-arb 7-0.3 0.1 -0.5
Mike Trombley 27 pre-arb 24-0.4 0.2 -0.6
Dave Winfield 42 FA-elig 77-0.4 2.7 -3.2
Dave McCarty 24 pre-arb 44-0.4 0.1 -0.6
Carlos Pulido 22 pre-arb 19-0.5 0.1 -0.6
Matt Walbeck 24 pre-arb 97-0.7 0.1 -0.9
Larry Casian↔ CLE 28 arb 33-0.7 0.1 -1.0

Key additions (new vs 1993)

PlayerfWAR
Alex Cole1.3
Erik Schullstrom0.3
Kevin Campbell0.3
Dave Stevens-0.2
Steve Dunn-0.2
Keith Garagozzo-0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 1993)

Player1993 fWAR
Willie Banks2.6
Brian Harper2.3
Mike Pagliarulo1.1
Mike Hartley0.6
Terry Jorgensen0.1
Rich Garces0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

1994 payroll
$28.4M

What the front office was committed to as of 1994, 1994–2000. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (7)

PlayerAgeSvc1994199519961997199819992000
Kirby Puckett3410.000$5.3M$6.3MFREE AGENT
Rick Aguilera329.000$3.3M$2.5M$3.5M$3.1M$2.8M$3.1MFREE AGENT
Shane Mack307.000$3.2MFREE AGENT
Kent Hrbek3413.000$3.1MFREE AGENT
Dave Winfield4221.000$2.7MFREE AGENT
Jim Deshaies3410.000$575kFREE AGENT
Carl Willis3310.000$500kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc1994199519961997199819992000
Kevin Tapani305.000$2.6MFREE AGENT
Chuck Knoblauch253.000$1.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Erickson264.000$1.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Guthrie285.000$875kFREE AGENT
Pedro Munoz254.000$590kARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Cole284.000$375kARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Leius284.000$275kARB 3FREE AGENT
Chip Hale295.000$150kFREE AGENT
Larry Casian284.000$148kARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Campbell293.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (16)

PlayerAgeSvc1994199519961997199819992000
Mike Trombley272.000$175kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Reboulet302.000$162kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pat Meares251.000$160kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dave McCarty241.000$130kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pat Mahomes232.000$126kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eddie Guardado231.000$120kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Derek Parks252.000$116kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Walbeck241.000$115kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rich Becker221.000$109kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keith Garagozzo240.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Denny Hocking241.000$109kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Pulido220.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dave Stevens240.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erik Schullstrom250.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Dunn24
Brett Merriman27

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Twins 1994; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3