RRosternomics
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Cubs CHC

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GM: Dallas Green

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.45× league · TAB -13.3
-13.3TAB — talent above budget25th/26
-15.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)26th/26
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars22nd/26
-5.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag19th/26
40%dead money %20th/26
0.438win %24th/26
25.3roster fWAR22nd/26
-9surplus $M (value vs cost)26th/26
$16Mpayroll $M1st/26

Roster

CFBob Dernier 105GJerry Mumphrey 65GDave Martinez 39G
LFGary Matthews Sr. 105GJerry Mumphrey 39GThad Bosley 32G
RFKeith Moreland 121GChico Walker 22GJerry Mumphrey 21G
SSShawon Dunston 149GChris Speier 23G
2BRyne Sandberg 153GChris Speier 7GManny Trillo 6G
3BRon Cey 77GChris Speier 53GManny Trillo 53G
1BLeon Durham 141GTerry Francona 23GKeith Moreland 12G
STARTERSDennis Eckersley 3.9WARScott Sanderson 2.3WARSteve Trout 2.1WARRick Sutcliffe 1.9WAREd Lynch 1.2WAR
CJody Davis 145GKeith Moreland 13GMike Martin 8G
BULLPEN★ Lee Smith 31svFrank DiPino 0hRon Davis 0hDave Gumpert 0hJay Baller 0hDick Ruthven 0hDrew Hall 0h
CJody Davis 145 · Keith Moreland 13 · Mike Martin 8
1BLeon Durham 141 · Terry Francona 23 · Keith Moreland 12
2BRyne Sandberg 153 · Chris Speier 7 · Manny Trillo 6
3BRon Cey 77 · Chris Speier 53 · Manny Trillo 53
SSShawon Dunston 149 · Chris Speier 23
LFGary Matthews Sr. 105 · Jerry Mumphrey 39 · Thad Bosley 32
CFBob Dernier 105 · Jerry Mumphrey 65 · Dave Martinez 39
RFKeith Moreland 121 · Chico Walker 22 · Jerry Mumphrey 21
SPDennis Eckersley 3.9 · Scott Sanderson 2.3 · Steve Trout 2.1 · Rick Sutcliffe 1.9 · Ed Lynch 1.2
BP★ Lee Smith 31 · Frank DiPino 0 · Ron Davis 0 · Dave Gumpert 0 · Jay Baller 0 · Dick Ruthven 0 · Drew Hall 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1986 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jody Davis 29 arb 1484.2 0.8 +0.4
Dennis Eckersley 31 FA-elig 333.9 0.8 +0.4
Ryne Sandberg 26 arb 1543.0 0.7 +0.2
Scott Sanderson 29 FA-elig 382.3 0.8 -0.1
Steve Trout 28 FA-elig 372.1 0.9 -0.3
Rick Sutcliffe 30 FA-elig 291.9 1.5 -1.0
Davey Lopes↔ HOU 41 FA-elig 591.8 0.3 +0.2
Lee Smith 28 FA-elig 661.8 0.7 -0.2
Ron Cey 38 FA-elig 971.6 1.4 -0.9
Ed Lynch↔ NYM 30 FA-elig 231.2 0.5 -0.1
Chris Speier 36 FA-elig 950.9 0.3 -0.0
Guy Hoffman 29 – 330.9 – –
Leon Durham 28 FA-elig 1410.7 1.0 -0.8
Shawon Dunston 23 pre-arb 1500.7 0.1 +0.1
Greg Maddux 20 – 60.5 – –
Dave Gumpert 28 arb 380.4 0.1 +0.1
Jamie Moyer 23 pre-arb 160.4 0.1 +0.0
Thad Bosley 29 FA-elig 870.3 0.3 -0.2
Drew Hall 23 – 50.3 – –
Frank DiPino↔ HOU 29 arb 300.3 0.1 -0.1
Brian Dayett 29 – 240.3 – –
Steve Lake↔ STL 29 arb 100.2 0.0 +0.0
Manny Trillo 35 FA-elig 810.2 0.6 -0.5
Gary Matthews Sr. 35 FA-elig 1230.2 0.8 -0.8
Matt Keough↔ HOU 30 FA-elig 190.1 0.1 -0.0
Ray Fontenot↔ MIN 28 arb 420.0 0.2 -0.2
Ron Davis↔ MIN 30 FA-elig 17-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Rafael Palmeiro 21 – 22-0.0 – –
Steve Christmas 28 – 3-0.1 – –
Jerry Mumphrey 33 FA-elig 111-0.1 0.8 -0.9
George Frazier↔ MIN 31 FA-elig 35-0.2 0.4 -0.5
Chico Walker 28 – 28-0.2 – –
Mike Martin 27 pre-arb 8-0.3 0.1 -0.1
Jay Baller 25 – 36-0.3 – –
Terry Francona 27 arb 86-0.4 0.2 -0.4
Dick Ruthven 35 FA-elig 6-0.4 1.1 -1.2
Bob Dernier 29 FA-elig 108-0.8 0.6 -0.8
Keith Moreland 32 FA-elig 156-1.0 0.8 -1.1
Dave Martinez 21 – 53-1.2 – –

Key additions (new vs 1985)

PlayerfWAR
Ed Lynch1.2
Guy Hoffman0.9
Greg Maddux0.5
Jamie Moyer0.4
Drew Hall0.3
Frank DiPino0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 1985)

Player1985 fWAR
Reggie Patterson0.7
Larry Bowa0.6
Gary Woods0.3
Ron Meridith0.0
Lary Sorensen0.0
Dave Owen0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

1986 payroll
$16.2M

What the front office was committed to as of 1986, 1986–1992. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (22)

PlayerAgeSvc1986198719881989199019911992
Rick Sutcliffe3010.000$1.5M$1.8M$2.1M$2.3M$1.9M$2.3MFREE AGENT
Ron Cey3815.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
Dick Ruthven3513.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Leon Durham286.000$983k$1.2M$738kFREE AGENT
Steve Trout288.000$890k$498kFREE AGENT
Jerry Mumphrey3312.000$850k$750k$608kFREE AGENT
Gary Matthews Sr.3514.000$850k$445kFREE AGENT
Scott Sanderson298.000$800k$850k$950k$800kFREE AGENT
Dennis Eckersley3111.000$783kFREE AGENT
Keith Moreland328.000$760k$1.0MFREE AGENT
Lee Smith286.000$720k$840kFREE AGENT
Bob Dernier296.000$558k$708kFREE AGENT
Manny Trillo3513.000$550k$290k$357kFREE AGENT
Ed Lynch306.000$508k$550kFREE AGENT
George Frazier318.000$443kFREE AGENT
Thad Bosley299.000$328kFREE AGENT
Davey Lopes4114.000$301kFREE AGENT
Chris Speier3615.000$275kFREE AGENT
Ron Davis308.000$233k$239kFREE AGENT
Matt Keough309.000$66kFREE AGENT
Guy Hoffman297.000—FREE AGENT
Chico Walker286.000—FREE AGENT$234k

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc1986198719881989199019911992
Jody Davis295.000$833kFREE AGENT
Ryne Sandberg265.000$665kFREE AGENT
Terry Francona275.000$250kFREE AGENT
Ray Fontenot283.000$177kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Frank DiPino295.000$138kFREE AGENT
Dave Gumpert284.000$64kARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Lake293.000$17kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jay Baller254.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Dayett293.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (8)

PlayerAgeSvc1986198719881989199019911992
Shawon Dunston231.000$100kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Martin270.000$60kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jamie Moyer230.000$60kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Christmas28–—
Drew Hall230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg Maddux200.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dave Martinez210.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rafael Palmeiro210.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cubs 1986; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.