RRosternomics

Braves ATL

GM: John Schuerholz

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 15 in this regime · payroll 1.02× league · TAB +0.2
+0.2TAB — talent above budget17th/30
-3.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)21st/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars13th/30
-3.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag7th/30
12%dead money %1st/30
0.488win %17th/30
34.7roster fWAR13th/30
-8surplus $M (value vs cost)17th/30
$78Mpayroll $M14th/30

Roster

CFAndruw Jones 153GRyan Langerhans 24GBrian Jordan 2G
LFRyan Langerhans 104GMatt Diaz 95GScott Thorman 21G
RFJeff Francoeur 162GMatt Diaz 6GRyan Langerhans 2G
SSEdgar Renteria 146GTony Pena Jr. 22GWilson Betemit 18G
2BMarcus Giles 134GPete Orr 32GMartín Prado 11G
3BChipper Jones 105GWilly Aybar 61GPete Orr 10G
1BAdam LaRoche 142GBrian Jordan 25GScott Thorman 18G
STARTERSJohn Smoltz 5.5WARTim Hudson 2.2WARHoracio Ramirez 0.8WARJohn Thomson 0.7WARChuck James 0.3WAR
CBrian McCann 124GTodd Pratt 54GBrayan Peña 15G
DHAndruw Jones 2GChipper Jones 2GWilson Betemit 1G
BULLPEN Bob Wickman 33svDanys Baez 12hTyler Yates 12hMacay McBride 10hChad Paronto 8hKen Ray 7hOscar Villarreal 2hMike Remlinger 2h
CBrian McCann 124 · Todd Pratt 54 · Brayan Peña 15
1BAdam LaRoche 142 · Brian Jordan 25 · Scott Thorman 18
2BMarcus Giles 134 · Pete Orr 32 · Martín Prado 11
3BChipper Jones 105 · Willy Aybar 61 · Pete Orr 10
SSEdgar Renteria 146 · Tony Pena Jr. 22 · Wilson Betemit 18
LFRyan Langerhans 104 · Matt Diaz 95 · Scott Thorman 21
CFAndruw Jones 153 · Ryan Langerhans 24 · Brian Jordan 2
RFJeff Francoeur 162 · Matt Diaz 6 · Ryan Langerhans 2
DHAndruw Jones 2 · Chipper Jones 2 · Wilson Betemit 1
SPJohn Smoltz 5.5 · Tim Hudson 2.2 · Horacio Ramirez 0.8 · John Thomson 0.7 · Chuck James 0.3
BP Bob Wickman 33 · Danys Baez 12 · Tyler Yates 12 · Macay McBride 10 · Chad Paronto 8 · Ken Ray 7 · Oscar Villarreal 2 · Mike Remlinger 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2006 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Andruw Jones 29 FA-elig 1566.0 13.5 -1.5
John Smoltz 39 FA-elig 355.5 11.0 -0.0
Brian McCann 22 pre-arb 1304.3 0.3 +8.1
Chipper Jones Jr. 34 FA-elig 1103.9 12.3 -4.5
Edgar Renteria 29 FA-elig 1493.6 9.0 -1.8
Adam LaRoche 26 pre-arb 1492.2 0.4 +4.0
Tim Hudson 30 FA-elig 352.2 6.5 -2.2
Matt Diaz 28 arb 1241.8 0.3 +3.3
Ryan Langerhans 26 arb 1311.2 0.3 +2.1
Bob Wickman↔ CLE 37 FA-elig 281.1 2.5 -0.3
Marcus Giles 28 arb 1411.0 3.9 -1.8
Horacio Ramirez 26 arb 140.8 2.2 -0.6
Jeff Francoeur 22 pre-arb 1620.7 0.4 +1.0
John Thomson 32 FA-elig 180.7 4.8 -3.4
Macay McBride 23 pre-arb 710.6 0.3 +0.9
Wilson Betemit↔ LAD 24 arb 880.5 0.2 +0.8
Chad Paronto 30 650.4
Chuck James 24 pre-arb 250.3 0.3 +0.3
Danys Baez↔ LAD 28 arb 110.2 0.8 -0.3
Mike Remlinger 40 FA-elig 360.2 0.7 -0.2
Willy Aybar↔ LAD 23 360.2
Peter Moylan 27 150.2
Brayan Peña 24 230.1 0.3 -0.1
Kevin Barry 27 190.1
Jorge Sosa↔ STL 29 arb 270.1 1.3 -1.1
Travis Smith 33 10.1
Lance Cormier 25 pre-arb 290.1 0.3 -0.2
Tony Pena Jr. 25 400.0
Phil Stockman 26 40.0
Daryle Ward↔ WSN 31 FA-elig 200.0 0.1 -0.1
Blaine Boyer 24 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.3 -0.4
Anthony Lerew 23 1-0.0
Pete Orr 27 pre-arb 102-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Tyler Yates 28 56-0.1
Joey Devine 22 10-0.1
Oscar Villarreal 24 arb 58-0.1 0.5 -0.6
Scott Thorman 24 55-0.1
Ken Ray 31 69-0.2
Wayne Franklin 32 11-0.2
Jason Shiell 29 4-0.3
Brian Jordan 39 FA-elig 48-0.4 0.7 -1.4
Kyle Davies 22 pre-arb 14-0.4 0.3 -1.1
Todd Pratt 39 FA-elig 62-0.4 0.8 -1.7
Martín Prado 22 24-0.5
Chris Reitsma 28 arb 27-0.7 2.8 -4.1

Key additions (new vs 2005)

PlayerfWAR
Edgar Renteria3.6
Matt Diaz1.8
Bob Wickman1.1
Chad Paronto0.4
Danys Baez0.2
Mike Remlinger0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2005)

Player2005 fWAR
Rafael Furcal4.5
Kelly Johnson1.5
Mike Hampton1.4
Julio Franco0.5
Adam Bernero0.4
Kyle Farnsworth0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2006 payroll
$77.6M

What the front office was committed to as of 2006, 2006–2012. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Andruw Jones2910.000$13.5M$14.0MFREE AGENT
Chipper Jones Jr.3413.000$12.3M$12.3M$12.3M$10.0M$14.0M$14.0M$13.0M
John Smoltz3918.000$11.0M$8.0M$14.0MFREE AGENT
Edgar Renteria2910.000$9.0M$9.0MFREE AGENT
Tim Hudson307.000$6.5M$8.5M$15.5M$15.5M$9.0M$9.0M$9.0M
John Thomson329.000$4.8MFREE AGENT
Bob Wickman3714.000$2.5M$5.6MFREE AGENT
Todd Pratt3914.000$850kFREE AGENT
Brian Jordan3914.000$700kFREE AGENT
Mike Remlinger4015.000$700kFREE AGENT
Daryle Ward318.000$143kFREE AGENT
Travis Smith338.000FREE AGENT
Wayne Franklin326.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Marcus Giles285.000$3.9MFREE AGENT
Chris Reitsma285.000$2.8MFREE AGENT
Horacio Ramirez263.000$2.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Sosa294.000$1.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Danys Baez285.000$772kFREE AGENT
Oscar Villarreal243.000$462kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Langerhans264.000$345kARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Diaz283.000$330kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilson Betemit245.000$212kFREE AGENT
Chad Paronto305.000FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (22)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Adam LaRoche262.000$420kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Francoeur221.000$384kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lance Cormier252.000$345kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pete Orr271.000$340kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blaine Boyer241.000$336kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian McCann221.000$334kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Davies221.000$334kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Macay McBride231.000$332kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chuck James241.000$327kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brayan Peña241.000$327kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ken Ray31
Tyler Yates282.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Shiell29
Scott Thorman240.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Willy Aybar231.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Pena Jr.250.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Phil Stockman26
Anthony Lerew231.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Barry27
Martín Prado220.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Devine220.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Peter Moylan270.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Braves 2006; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3