Hal Keller

Overview

Titles0

Pennants0

Playoffs0

Record74–88

Win %0.457

+1.2GM WAR — wins above a replacement GM (org-adjusted, shrunk; per season) ±7.846th/195 execs

6.0Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)103rd/195 execs

-6.1Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)142nd/195 execs

23%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)21st/195 execs

$4MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track142nd/195 execs

$4MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)113th/195 execs

$0MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade139th/195 execs

$-0MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees157th/195 execs

+6.4TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total62nd/195 execs

+2.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)63rd/195 execs

–Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)190th/195 execs

+3Roster surplus $M40th/195 execs

Tenure breakdown

Team	Role	Years	Szns	WAB	WAB/yr	TAB	WAR surp	HG	Trade	FA	R5	AcqLev	W-L%	PO	Pen	WS	Surp $M
▸ Mariners	GM	1984–1985	1	+2.7	+2.66	+6.4	+11.6	+25.4	-0.0	-0.4	+5.4	–	0.457	–	–	–	+3
1985 74–88				+2.7		+6.4	+11.6						0.457				+3
Career total (1985+ data)			1	+2.7		+6.4	+11.6	+25.4	-0.0	-0.4	+5.4	–	0.457	–	–	–	+3

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

by value by volume

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+25.4

Trade-0.0

Free agency-0.4

Rule 5 / minor draft+5.4

Sourcing mix: 82% draft · 0% FA · 0% trade · 18% R5

Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across Hal Keller's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.

Players acquired — 18 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

Player	Pos	Team	How	Year	Szns	fWAR	WAR/yr	Lev
Bill Swift	P	SEA	Draft	1984	7	+11.5	+1.6	–
Omar Vizquel	SS	SEA	Intl FA	1984	5	+8.5	+1.7	–
Mike Morgan	P	SEA	Rule 5	1984	2	+5.4	+2.7	–
Mike Schooler	P	SEA	Draft	1985	4	+4.6	+1.2	–
Mike Campbell	P	SEA	Draft	1985	2	+0.5	+0.3	–
Clint Zavaras	P	SEA	Draft	1985	1	+0.4	+0.4	–
Paul Mirabella	P	SEA	Trade	1985	2	+0.3	+0.2	–
Frank Wills	P	SEA	Trade	1985	1	+0.1	+0.1	–
Calvin Jones	P	SEA	Draft	1984	1	+0.0	+0.0	–
Jack Lazorko	P	SEA	Trade	1985	1	+0.0	+0.0	–
Dave Tobik	P	SEA	Trade	1985	–	-0.0	–	–
Steve Yeager	C	SEA	Trade	1985	1	+0.0	+0.0	0.0
Salomé Barojas	P	SEA	Trade	1984	–	-0.1	–	–
Bill McGuire	C	SEA	Draft	1985	–	-0.1	–	–
Rich Monteleone	P	SEA	Trade	1985	–	-0.1	–	–
Clay Parker	P	SEA	Draft	1985	–	-0.1	–	–
Bob Long	P	SEA	Trade	1985	–	-0.2	–	–
Donnie Scott	C	SEA	Trade	1985	–	-0.2	–	–

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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