DET⇄SEA

DETDET Bill Lajoie net −$4.8M net +0.7

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $24M expected surplus · −$6.4M realized received 1.7 ± 3 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 1986 odds 45% → 60% (+14.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Darnell Coles3B/OF·24y·R/R

+$3.9M+$3.9M± $24M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 1.7± 3 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.30/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Hal Keller net +$4.8M net -0.7

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $26M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 1986 odds 1% → 1% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rich MonteleoneP·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.