Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1 | 1.1 | WSN | Eli Willits | IF SS | 18 HS | S/R | 6'1" | 180 | $8.2M | 44% | Danny Haas | Mike DeBartolo | 0.0 | — | 49.9±4.0 |
| 2025 | 2 | 1.2 | ANA | Tyler Bremner | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 190 | $7.69M | 41% | Tim McIlvaine | Perry Minasian | 0.0 | — | 17.9±3.9 |
| 2025 | 3 | 1.3 | SEA | Kade Anderson | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'2" | 179 | $8.8M | 48% | Scott Hunter | Jerry Dipoto | 0.0 | — | 9.8±3.9 |
| 2025 | 4 | 1.4 | COL | Ethan Holliday | IF SS | 18 HS | L/R | 6'2" | 210 | $9.0M | 53% | Danny Montgomery | Bill Schmidt | 0.0 | — | 18.9±3.9 |
| 2025 | 5 | 1.5 | STL | Liam Doyle | P P | 21 COLL | R/L | 6'2" | 220 | $7.25M | 47% | Jamal Strong | John Mozeliak | 0.0 | — | 8.5±3.9 |
| 2025 | 6 | 1.6 | PIT | Seth Hernandez | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 190 | $7.25M | 55% | Joe Dellicarri | Ben Cherington | 0.0 | — | 9.9±3.8 |
| 2025 | 7 | 1.7 | MIA | Aiva Arquette | IF SS | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 220 | $7.15M | 44% | — | Peter Bendix | 0.0 | — | 14.8±4.0 |
| 2025 | 8 | 1.8 | TOR | JoJo Parker | IF SS | 19 HS | L/R | 6'2" | 200 | $6.2M | 51% | Marc Tramuta | Ross Atkins | 0.0 | — | 14.3±3.9 |
| 2025 | 9 | 1.9 | CIN | Steele Hall | IF SS | 18 HS | R/R | 5'10" | 180 | $5.75M | 45% | Jeff Graupe | Nick Krall | 0.0 | — | 14.3±3.9 |
| 2025 | 10 | 1.10 | CHW | Billy Carlson | IF SS | 19 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 185 | $6.24M | 44% | Mike Shirley | Chris Getz | 0.0 | — | 14.3±3.9 |
| 2025 | 11 | 1.11 | OAK | Jamie Arnold | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'1" | 188 | $5.99M | 49% | Eric Kubota | David Forst | 0.0 | — | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2025 | 12 | 1.12 | TEX | Gavin Fien | IF SS | 18 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 200 | $4.8M | 38% | Kip Fagg | Chris Young | 0.0 | — | 7.8±3.8 |
| 2025 | 13 | 1.13 | SFG | Gavin Kilen | IF SS | 21 COLL | L/R | 5'10" | 187 | $5.25M | 54% | Michael Holmes | Buster Posey | 0.0 | — | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2025 | 14 | 1.14 | TBR | Daniel Pierce | IF SS | 19 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 185 | $4.31M | 32% | Chuck Ricci | Erik Neander | 0.0 | — | 7.8±3.8 |
| 2025 | 15 | 1.15 | BOS | Kyson Witherspoon | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 206 | $5.0M | 35% | Devin Pearson | Craig Breslow | 0.0 | — | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2025 | 16 | 1.16 | MIN | Marek Houston | IF SS | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 205 | $4.5M | 32% | Sean Johnson | Derek Falvey | 0.0 | — | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2025 | 17 | 1.17 | CHC | Ethan Conrad | OF OF | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'2" | 220 | $3.56M | 32% | Dan Kantrovitz | Jed Hoyer | 0.0 | — | 4.4±3.7 |
| 2025 | 18 | 1.18 | ARI | Kayson Cunningham | IF SS | 19 HS | L/R | 5'10" | 182 | $4.58M | 39% | Ian Rebhan | Mike Hazen | 0.0 | — | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2025 | 19 | 1.19 | BAL | Ike Irish | C C | 22 COLL | L/R | 6'2" | 201 | $4.42M | 21% | Matt Blood | Mike Elias | 0.0 | — | 2.0±3.9 |
| 2025 | 20 | 1.20 | MIL | Andrew Fischer | IF 3B | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'0" | 210 | $3.5M | 25% | Tod Johnson | Matt Arnold | 0.0 | — | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2025 | 21 | 1.21 | HOU | Xavier Neyens | IF SS | 19 HS | L/R | 6'3" | 210 | $4.12M | 47% | Deric Ladnier | Dana Brown | 0.0 | — | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2025 | 22 | 1.22 | ATL | Tate Southisene | IF SS | 19 HS | R/R | 5'11" | 180 | $2.62M | 24% | Ronit Shah | Alex Anthopoulos | 0.0 | — | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2025 | 23 | 1.23 | KCR | Sean Gamble | OF OF | 19 HS | L/R | 6'1" | 188 | $4.0M | 27% | Dan Ontiveros | J.J. Picollo | 0.0 | — | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2025 | 24 | 1.24 | DET | Jordan Yost | IF SS | 19 HS | L/R | 6'0" | 170 | $3.25M | 25% | Mark Conner | Scott Harris | 0.0 | — | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2025 | 25 | 1.25 | SDP | Kruz Schoolcraft | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 6'8" | 229 | $3.61M | 45% | — | AJ Preller | 0.0 | — | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2025 | 26 | 1.26 | PHI | Gage Wood | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 205 | $3.0M | 32% | Brian Barber | Dave Dombrowski | 0.0 | — | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2025 | 27 | 1.27 | CLE | Jace LaViolette | OF OF | 22 COLL | L/L | 6'6" | 228 | $4.0M | 33% | Paul Gillispie | Chris Antonetti | 0.0 | — | 3.8±3.7 |
| 2025 | 38 | 1.28 | NYM | Mitch Voit | IF 2B | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 201 | $1.75M | 25% | Drew Toussaint | David Stearns | 0.0 | — | 3.8±3.7 |
| 2025 | 39 | 1.29 | NYY | Dax Kilby | IF SS | 19 HS | L/R | 6'2" | 190 | $2.8M | 40% | Damon Oppenheimer | Brian Cashman | 0.0 | — | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2025 | 40 | 1.30 | LAD | Zach Root | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'2" | 210 | $2.2M | 22% | Zach Fitzpatrick | Andrew Friedman | 0.0 | — | 3.0±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.