Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1 | 1.1 | PIT | Paul Skenes | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'6" | 260 | $9.2M | 54% | Joe Dellicarri | Ben Cherington | 12.4 | +8.7 | 19.6±3.8 |
| 2023 | 2 | 1.2 | WSN | Dylan Crews | OF CF | 21 COLL | R/R | 5'11" | 203 | $9.0M | 56% | — | Michael Rizzo | 0.6 | -2.2 | 23.5±4.2 |
| 2023 | 3 | 1.3 | DET | Max Clark | OF OF | 19 HS | L/L | 5'11" | 205 | $7.7M | 44% | Mark Conner | Scott Harris | 0.0 | -1.1 | 14.3±4.2 |
| 2023 | 4 | 1.4 | TEX | Wyatt Langford | OF LF | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 225 | $8.0M | 70% | Kip Fagg | Chris Young | 7.5 | +4.8 | 23.5±3.7 |
| 2023 | 5 | 1.5 | MIN | Walker Jenkins | OF OF | 18 HS | L/R | 6'3" | 210 | $7.14M | 47% | Sean Johnson | Derek Falvey | 0.0 | -0.2 | 8.0±4.1 |
| 2023 | 6 | 1.6 | OAK | Jacob Wilson | IF SS | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 190 | $5.5M | 35% | Eric Kubota | David Forst | 4.5 | +2.9 | 14.8±4.0 |
| 2023 | 7 | 1.7 | CIN | Rhett Lowder | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 200 | $5.7M | 36% | Joe Katuska | Nick Krall | 1.6 | -0.1 | 7.9±3.8 |
| 2023 | 8 | 1.8 | KCR | Blake Mitchell | C C | 19 HS | L/R | 6'0" | 202 | $4.9M | 35% | Dan Ontiveros | J.J. Picollo | 0.0 | -0.0 | 7.7±4.2 |
| 2023 | 9 | 1.9 | COL | Chase Dollander | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 219 | $5.72M | 43% | — | Bill Schmidt | 0.4 | -1.3 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2023 | 10 | 1.10 | MIA | Noble Meyer | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'5" | 185 | $4.5M | 33% | — | Kim Ng | 0.0 | -0.2 | 5.8±3.8 |
| 2023 | 11 | 1.11 | ANA | Nolan Schanuel | IF 1B | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'2" | 220 | $5.25M | 53% | Tim McIlvaine | Perry Minasian | 2.3 | +1.1 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2023 | 12 | 1.12 | ARI | Tommy Troy | OF OF | 21 COLL | R/R | 5'9" | 197 | $4.4M | 36% | Ian Rebhan | Mike Hazen | 0.0 | -0.3 | 4.4±3.8 |
| 2023 | 13 | 1.13 | CHC | Matt Shaw | OF RF | 22 COLL | R/R | 5'10" | 185 | $4.85M | 45% | Dan Kantrovitz | Jed Hoyer | 1.4 | +1.1 | 4.4±3.8 |
| 2023 | 14 | 1.14 | BOS | Kyle Teel | C C | 21 COLL | L/R | 5'11" | 210 | $4.0M | 34% | Devin Pearson | Chaim Bloom | 1.9 | +1.0 | 17.0±4.1 |
| 2023 | 15 | 1.15 | CHW | Jacob Gonzalez | IF SS | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'2" | 205 | $3.9M | 36% | Mike Shirley | Kenny Williams | 0.0 | -1.2 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2023 | 16 | 1.16 | SFG | Bryce Eldridge | DH DH | 19 HS | L/R | 6'7" | 251 | $4.0M | 35% | Michael Holmes | Farhan Zaidi | -0.4 | -0.8 | 6.4±3.7 |
| 2023 | 17 | 1.17 | BAL | Enrique Bradfield Jr. | OF OF | 22 COLL | L/L | 5'11" | 170 | $4.17M | 37% | — | Mike Elias | 0.0 | -0.3 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 2023 | 18 | 1.18 | MIL | Brock Wilken | IF 3B | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 237 | $3.15M | 25% | — | Matt Arnold | 0.0 | -0.7 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2023 | 19 | 1.19 | TBR | Brayden Taylor | IF SS | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'0" | 180 | $3.88M | 32% | — | Erik Neander | 0.0 | -0.7 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2023 | 20 | 1.20 | TOR | Arjun Nimmala | IF SS | 18 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 190 | $3.0M | 38% | Shane Farrell | Ross Atkins | 0.0 | -0.1 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2023 | 21 | 1.21 | STL | Chase Davis | OF OF | 22 COLL | L/L | 6'1" | 216 | $3.62M | 47% | Jamal Strong | John Mozeliak | 0.0 | -0.3 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 2023 | 22 | 1.22 | SEA | Colt Emerson | IF 3B | 18 HS | L/R | 6'0" | 195 | $3.8M | 27% | Scott Hunter | Jerry Dipoto | 0.1 | -0.0 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2023 | 23 | 1.23 | CLE | Ralphy Velazquez | IF 1B | 18 HS | L/R | 6'1" | 240 | $2.5M | 24% | Paul Gillispie | Chris Antonetti | 0.0 | -0.1 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2023 | 24 | 1.24 | ATL | Hurston Waldrep | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 210 | $3.0M | 30% | — | Alex Anthopoulos | 0.8 | +0.1 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2023 | 25 | 1.25 | SDP | Dillon Head | OF CF | 19 HS | L/L | 5'10" | 185 | $2.8M | 40% | — | AJ Preller | 0.0 | -0.2 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2023 | 26 | 1.26 | NYY | George Lombard Jr. | IF SS | 18 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 190 | $3.3M | 47% | — | Brian Cashman | 0.0 | -0.1 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2023 | 27 | 1.27 | PHI | Aidan Miller | IF SS | 19 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 205 | $3.1M | 46% | Brian Barber | Dave Dombrowski | 0.0 | -0.1 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2023 | 28 | 1.28 | HOU | Brice Matthews | OF CF | 21 COLL | R/R | 5'10" | 190 | $2.48M | 30% | Evan Brannon | Dana Brown | 0.3 | +0.0 | 3.8±3.7 |
| 2023 | 32 | 1.29 | NYM | Colin Houck | IF SS | 19 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 190 | $2.75M | 28% | Drew Toussaint | Billy Eppler | 0.0 | -0.1 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2023 | 36 | 1.30 | LAD | Kendall George | OF OF | 19 HS | L/L | 5'9" | 170 | $1.85M | 22% | Billy Gasparino | Andrew Friedman | 0.0 | -0.1 | 2.4±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.