Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1 | 1.1 | PIT | Henry Davis | C C | 22 COLL | R/R | 5'11" | 225 | $6.5M | 41% | Joe Dellicarri | Ben Cherington | -1.7 | -11.2 | 28.2±3.7 |
| 2021 | 2 | 1.2 | TEX | Jack Leiter | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 205 | $7.92M | 59% | Kip Fagg | Jon Daniels | 2.6 | -4.6 | 17.9±3.9 |
| 2021 | 3 | 1.3 | DET | Jackson Jobe | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 190 | $6.9M | 43% | Scott Pleis | Al Avila | 0.1 | -2.5 | 9.9±4.1 |
| 2021 | 4 | 1.4 | BOS | Marcelo Mayer | IF 2B | 19 HS | L/R | 6'3" | 188 | $6.66M | 62% | Paul Toboni | Chaim Bloom | 0.7 | -4.5 | 18.9±3.9 |
| 2021 | 5 | 1.5 | BAL | Colton Cowser | OF CF | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'3" | 220 | $4.9M | 39% | — | Mike Elias | 4.3 | -1.2 | 23.5±4.1 |
| 2021 | 6 | 1.6 | ARI | Jordan Lawlar | OF LF | 19 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 190 | $6.71M | 56% | Deric Ladnier | Mike Hazen | -0.4 | -1.4 | 8.0±3.9 |
| 2021 | 7 | 1.7 | KCR | Frank Mozzicato | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 6'3" | 175 | $3.55M | 28% | — | J.J. Picollo | 0.0 | -1.3 | 9.9±3.8 |
| 2021 | 8 | 1.8 | COL | Benny Montgomery | OF OF | 19 HS | R/R | 6'5" | 200 | $5.0M | 44% | — | Jeff Bridich | 0.0 | -1.0 | 8.0±3.8 |
| 2021 | 9 | 1.9 | ANA | Sam Bachman | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 235 | $3.85M | 36% | Matt Swanson | Perry Minasian | 0.7 | -3.0 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2021 | 10 | 1.10 | NYM | ✕ Kumar Rocker | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 245 | — | — | Marc Tramuta | Jared Porter | 0.0 | -3.7 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2021 | 11 | 1.11 | WSN | Brady House | IF 3B | 18 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 208 | $5.0M | 49% | — | Michael Rizzo | -0.3 | -1.1 | 7.8±3.8 |
| 2021 | 12 | 1.12 | SEA | Harry Ford | C C | 18 HS | R/R | 5'10" | 200 | $4.37M | 46% | — | Jerry Dipoto | -0.0 | -0.4 | 3.6±4.1 |
| 2021 | 13 | 1.13 | PHI | Andrew Painter | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'7" | 215 | $3.9M | 41% | Brian Barber | Dave Dombrowski | 0.3 | -1.0 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2021 | 14 | 1.14 | SFG | Will Bednar | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 246 | $3.65M | 40% | Michael Holmes | Farhan Zaidi | 0.0 | -2.9 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2021 | 15 | 1.15 | MIL | Sal Frelick | OF RF | 21 COLL | L/R | 5'9" | 191 | $4.0M | 38% | — | David Stearns | 6.0 | +4.9 | 4.4±3.8 |
| 2021 | 16 | 1.16 | MIA | Kahlil Watson | OF LF | 18 HS | L/R | 5'9" | 178 | $4.54M | 40% | D J Svihlik | Kim Ng | 0.0 | -1.0 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2021 | 17 | 1.17 | CIN | Matt McLain | IF 2B | 22 COLL | R/R | 5'8" | 180 | $4.62M | 34% | Brad Meador | Nick Krall | 4.9 | +2.4 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2021 | 18 | 1.18 | STL | Michael McGreevy | P P | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'4" | 220 | $2.75M | 29% | — | John Mozeliak | 2.2 | +0.3 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2021 | 19 | 1.19 | TOR | Gunnar Hoglund | P P | 22 COLL | L/R | 6'4" | 220 | $3.25M | 47% | Shane Farrell | Ross Atkins | -0.4 | -2.4 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2021 | 20 | 1.20 | NYY | Trey Sweeney | IF SS | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'2" | 212 | $3.0M | 37% | — | Brian Cashman | -0.5 | -3.0 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2021 | 21 | 1.21 | CHC | Jordan Wicks | P P | 22 COLL | L/L | 6'3" | 220 | $3.13M | 40% | Dan Kantrovitz | Jed Hoyer | 0.3 | -1.6 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2021 | 22 | 1.22 | CHW | Colson Montgomery | IF SS | 19 HS | L/R | 6'3" | 230 | $3.03M | 37% | Mike Shirley | Kenny Williams | 4.6 | +3.8 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2021 | 23 | 1.23 | CLE | Gavin Williams | P P | 22 COLL | L/R | 6'6" | 250 | $2.25M | 27% | Scott Barnsby | Chris Antonetti | 4.8 | +2.9 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2021 | 24 | 1.24 | ATL | Ryan Cusick | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'6" | 235 | $2.7M | 36% | Dana Brown | Alex Anthopoulos | 0.0 | -1.9 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2021 | 25 | 1.25 | OAK | Max Muncy | IF 3B | 19 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 180 | $2.85M | 40% | Eric Kubota | David Forst | -0.2 | -1.1 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2021 | 26 | 1.26 | MIN | Chase Petty | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 190 | $2.5M | 28% | Sean Johnson | Derek Falvey | -0.3 | -0.7 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 2021 | 27 | 1.27 | SDP | Jackson Merrill | OF CF | 18 HS | L/R | 6'2" | 195 | $1.8M | 23% | Mark Conner | AJ Preller | 8.7 | +8.3 | 2.4±3.7 |
| 2021 | 28 | 1.28 | TBR | Carson Williams | IF SS | 18 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 180 | $2.35M | 27% | Rob Metzler | Erik Neander | -0.7 | -1.3 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2021 | 29 | 1.29 | LAD | Maddux Bruns | P P | 19 HS | L/L | 6'2" | 205 | $2.2M | 38% | Billy Gasparino | Andrew Friedman | 0.0 | -0.4 | 2.7±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.