RRosternomics
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Mariners SEA

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GM: Jerry Dipoto

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.63× league · TAB -3.9
-3.9TAB — talent above budget20th/30
+14.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)4th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars15th/30
-5.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag14th/30
37%dead money %17th/30
0.556win %10th/30
24.7roster fWAR22nd/30
+1surplus $M (value vs cost)10th/30
$80Mpayroll $M24th/30

Roster

CFJarred Kelenic 77GTaylor Trammell 37GKyle Lewis 34G
LFJake Fraley 51GDylan Moore 48GShed Long Jr. 25G
RFMitch Haniger 123GJake Bauers 23GDylan Moore 9G
SSJ.P. Crawford 160GDylan Moore 4GDonovan Walton 2G
2BDylan Moore 66GAbraham Toro 58GTy France 21G
3BKyle Seager 149GAbraham Toro 32GDylan Moore 10G
1BTy France 106GJake Bauers 54GEvan White 30G
STARTERSChris Flexen 3.0WARLogan Gilbert 2.2WARYusei Kikuchi 1.1WARTyler Anderson 0.7WARJustin Dunn 0.5WAR
CTom Murphy 88GCal Raleigh 43GLuis Torrens 35G
DHLuis Torrens 59GMitch Haniger 34GTy France 26G
BULLPEN★ Diego Castillo 16svAnthony Misiewicz 19hPaul Sewald 16hCasey Sadler 16hDrew Steckenrider 7hSean Doolittle 5hJoe Smith 4hMatt Andriese 3h
CTom Murphy 88 · Cal Raleigh 43 · Luis Torrens 35
1BTy France 106 · Jake Bauers 54 · Evan White 30
2BDylan Moore 66 · Abraham Toro 58 · Ty France 21
3BKyle Seager 149 · Abraham Toro 32 · Dylan Moore 10
SSJ.P. Crawford 160 · Dylan Moore 4 · Donovan Walton 2
LFJake Fraley 51 · Dylan Moore 48 · Shed Long Jr. 25
CFJarred Kelenic 77 · Taylor Trammell 37 · Kyle Lewis 34
RFMitch Haniger 123 · Jake Bauers 23 · Dylan Moore 9
DHLuis Torrens 59 · Mitch Haniger 34 · Ty France 26
SPChris Flexen 3.0 · Logan Gilbert 2.2 · Yusei Kikuchi 1.1 · Tyler Anderson 0.7 · Justin Dunn 0.5
BP★ Diego Castillo 16 · Anthony Misiewicz 19 · Paul Sewald 16 · Casey Sadler 16 · Drew Steckenrider 7 · Sean Doolittle 5 · Joe Smith 4 · Matt Andriese 3

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2021 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Ty France 26 pre-arb 1523.2 0.6 +9.8
J.P. Crawford 26 arb 1603.1 2.0 +7.9
Chris Flexen 26 arb 313.0 1.7 +7.9
Kyle Seager 33 FA-elig 1592.3 18.5 -11.2
Logan Gilbert 24 – 242.2 0.4 +6.7
Mitch Haniger 30 arb 1572.1 3.0 +3.9
Paul Sewald 31 pre-arb 621.4 0.4 +4.2
Drew Steckenrider 30 arb 621.3 0.8 +3.4
Jake Fraley 26 pre-arb 781.1 0.6 +3.0
Casey Sadler 30 pre-arb 421.1 0.6 +3.0
Dylan Moore 28 pre-arb 1261.1 0.6 +2.9
Yusei Kikuchi 30 pre-arb 291.1 17.0 -13.6
Kendall Graveman↔ HOU 30 FA-elig 300.8 0.7 +1.9
Tyler Anderson↔ PIT 31 arb 130.7 1.0 +1.3
Tom Murphy 30 FA-elig 970.6 0.9 +1.1
Kyle Lewis 25 pre-arb 360.6 0.6 +1.2
Justin Dunn 25 pre-arb 110.5 0.6 +1.1
JT Chargois↔ TBR 30 arb 310.5 0.3 +1.3
Marco Gonzales 29 FA-elig 250.5 5.2 -3.6
Joe Smith↔ HOU 37 FA-elig 230.4 1.8 -0.4
Anthony Misiewicz 26 pre-arb 660.4 0.6 +0.9
Erik Swanson 27 pre-arb 330.4 0.5 +0.9
Héctor Santiago 33 FA-elig 130.3 0.6 +0.5
Rafael Montero↔ HOU 30 FA-elig 400.3 2.0 -1.2
Luis Torrens 25 pre-arb 1080.2 0.5 +0.3
Matt Andriese↔ BOS 31 FA-elig 80.2 0.4 +0.3
Abraham Toro↔ HOU 24 pre-arb 600.2 0.2 +0.4
Sean Doolittle↔ CIN 34 FA-elig 110.1 0.3 +0.1
Will Vest 26 – 320.1 0.3 +0.0
James Paxton 32 FA-elig 10.0 8.5 -8.4
Domingo Tapia↔ KCR 29 – 20.0 0.0 +0.0
Wyatt Mills 26 – 110.0 0.2 -0.2
Taylor Trammell 23 – 510.0 0.3 -0.3
Yacksel Ríos↔ BOS 28 – 30.0 0.0 -0.0
Keynan Middleton 27 arb 32-0.0 0.8 -0.8
Nick Margevicius 25 pre-arb 5-0.0 0.6 -0.6
Eric Campbell 34 pre-arb 4-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Andrés Muñoz 22 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.6 -0.6
Kevin Padlo↔ TBR 24 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Jake Bauers↔ CLE 25 pre-arb 72-0.0 0.2 -0.3
Braden Bishop 27 – 8-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Brady Lail 27 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Aaron Fletcher 25 pre-arb 4-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Cal Raleigh 24 – 47-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Diego Castillo↔ TBR 27 pre-arb 24-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Ryan Weber↔ BOS 30 pre-arb 2-0.1 0.3 -0.6
Daniel Zamora 28 pre-arb 4-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Yohan Ramírez 26 pre-arb 25-0.1 0.3 -0.6
Vinny Nittoli 30 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Dillon Thomas 28 – 4-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Robert Dugger 25 pre-arb 12-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Ljay Newsome 24 pre-arb 7-0.1 0.5 -1.0
Jack Mayfield↔ ANA 30 – 12-0.2 0.0 -0.5
Jacob Nottingham↔ MIL 26 pre-arb 10-0.2 0.4 -1.0
Justus Sheffield 25 pre-arb 21-0.3 0.6 -1.4
Sam Haggerty 27 pre-arb 35-0.3 0.6 -1.5
José Godoy 26 – 16-0.3 0.1 -1.0
Darren McCaughan 25 – 2-0.3 0.0 -1.1
Shed Long Jr. 25 – 34-0.3 0.6 -1.7
Donovan Walton 27 – 24-0.4 – –
Jarred Kelenic 21 – 93-0.5 0.3 -1.9
José Marmolejos 28 pre-arb 41-0.5 0.2 -2.0
Evan White 25 pre-arb 30-0.7 1.3 -3.7

Key additions (new vs 2020)

PlayerfWAR
Chris Flexen3.0
Logan Gilbert2.2
Mitch Haniger2.1
Paul Sewald1.4
Drew Steckenrider1.3
Tyler Anderson0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2020)

Player2020 fWAR
Austin Nola1.3
Phillip Ervin0.2
Carl Edwards Jr.0.2
Taylor Williams0.2
Taijuan Walker0.1
Joey Gerber0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2021 payroll
$80.2M
2022 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2021, 2021–2027. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2021; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (6)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Kyle Seager339.085$18.5MFREE AGENT
James Paxton326.151$8.5MFREE AGENT
Joe Smith3712.091$1.8MFREE AGENT
Héctor Santiago337.101$570kFREE AGENT
Matt Andriese316.000$435kFREE AGENT
Sean Doolittle348.122$295kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Marco Gonzales293.102$5.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mitch Haniger304.048$3.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Rafael Montero304.138$2.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Anderson315.065$1.0MFREE AGENT
Tom Murphy303.092$875kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Steckenrider303.094$800kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keynan Middleton273.089$800kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kendall Graveman305.078$708kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (49)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Yusei Kikuchi302.000$17.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.P. Crawford262.163$2.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Flexen260.107$1.7MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Evan White251.000$1.3MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Lewis251.020$625kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justus Sheffield251.053$605kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Sadler302.035$592kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dylan Moore282.000$590kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ty France261.089$588kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Margevicius251.100$587kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Dunn251.020$585kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shed Long Jr.25–$580k
Anthony Misiewicz261.000$579kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrés Muñoz221.080$575kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Haggerty270.140$574kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Fraley260.097$572kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ljay Newsome240.122$549kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Torrens251.128$503kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erik Swanson271.099$485kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Gilbert240.000$439kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Sewald312.101$439kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Nottingham261.026$384kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jarred Kelenic210.000$319kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Vest260.000$316kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
JT Chargois301.125$316kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Weber302.138$285kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yohan Ramírez261.000$264kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cal Raleigh240.000$258kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Trammell230.000$258kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Abraham Toro241.039$234kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Bauers251.100$232kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Marmolejos281.017$204kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wyatt Mills260.000$178kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Diego Castillo272.118$148kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robert Dugger250.162$129kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brady Lail270.154$100kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Godoy260.000$89kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Braden Bishop271.017$62kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jack Mayfield301.030$38kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Campbell342.024$31kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Fletcher250.067$31kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Zamora280.143$28kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yacksel Ríos282.019$24kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dillon Thomas280.000$18kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darren McCaughan250.000$18kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vinny Nittoli300.000$18kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Domingo Tapia290.047$13kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Padlo241.086$5kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Donovan Walton27–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Mariners 2021; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.