TEX⇄MIN

TEXTEX Tom Grieve net +$3.2M net +0.4

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $11M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 1990 odds 19% → 20% (+1.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeff Satzinger

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

MINMIN Andy MacPhail net −$3.2M net -0.4

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $19M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 1.9 ± 2 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 1990 odds 4% → 3% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Fred Manrique2B·28y·R/R

+$5.2M+$5.2M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.9± 2 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

0.63/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.