PHI⇄HOU

PHIPHI Lee Thomas net +$333.6M net +38.2

received +$7.2M+$7.2M ± $24M expected surplus · +$333.6M realized received 2.1 ± 3 expected · 38.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 1992 odds 2% → 6% (+3.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Curt SchillingP·25y·R/R

+$7.6M+$7.6M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$333.6M 2.1± 3 exp WARrealized 38.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

0.53/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

HOUHOU Bill Wood net −$333.6M net -38.2

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $40M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.9 ± 5 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 1992 odds 13% → 5% (-7.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jason GrimsleyP·24y·R/R

+$5.4M+$5.4M± $40M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.9± 5 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#252 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.35/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.