ARI⇄CHW

ARIARI Kevin Towers net +$4.0M net +0.4

received +$29.6M+$29.6M ± $35M expected surplus · +$3.2M realized received 3.2 ± 4 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2014 odds 1% → 1% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Addison ReedP·25y·L/R

+$29.5M+$29.5M± $35M exp surplusrealized +$3.2M 3.2± 4 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.81/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net −$4.0M net -0.4

received +$9.6M+$9.6M ± $46M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 3.3 ± 6 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2014 odds 2% → 2% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt Davidson3B/DH·23y·R/R

+$10.0M+$10.0M± $46M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 3.3± 6 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

Composite #72.0 pedigree (Baseball America #72 (2014)) → 0.40/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.59/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.