SDP⇄ARI

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net +$4.8M net +0.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2008 odds 3% → 3% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Evan ScribnerP·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#853 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Josh Byrnes net −$4.8M net -0.4

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 0.4 ± 1 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2008 odds 13% → 12% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tony Clark1B·36y·B/R

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $6M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 0.4± 1 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.27/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

0.40/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.