MIL⇄ATL

MILMIL Douglas Melvin net −$4.0M net +0.1

received −$2.4M−$3.2M ± $7M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 0.3 ± 1 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2006 odds 10% → 10% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Danny KolbP·31y·R/R

−$2.6M−$3.4M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 0.3± 1 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.26/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.80 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

ATLATL John Schuerholz net +$4.0M net -0.1

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2006 odds 18% → 17% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Wes ObermuellerP·29y·R/R

+$4.0M+$4.0M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#58 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.42/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.74 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.