STL⇄SFG

STLSTL Walt Jocketty net +$2.4M net +1.4

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $16M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 1.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 1997 odds 40% → 46% (+5.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tom LampkinC·33y·L/R

+$2.6M+$2.6M± $16M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 1.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.72/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.85 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SFGSFG Bob Quinn net −$2.4M net -1.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $8M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.6 ± 1 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 1997 odds 35% → 30% (-5.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

René ArochaP·33y·R/R

+$1.7M+$1.7M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.6± 1 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.39/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.75 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.