BOS⇄SEA

BOSBOS Lou Gorman net +$21.6M net +1.9

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $38M expected surplus · +$16.0M realized received 1.0 ± 5 expected · 2.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 1991 odds 26% → 30% (+4.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike GardinerP·25y·B/R

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $38M exp surplusrealized +$16.0M 1.0± 5 exp WARrealized 2.2

Prior

#448 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.0/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.19/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Woody Woodward net −$21.6M net -1.9

received +$3.2M−$1.6M ± $14M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 0.8 ± 2 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 1991 odds 4% → 3% (-0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rob MurphyP·31y·L/L

+$3.0M−$1.8M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 0.8± 2 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.55/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.