WSN⇄LAD

WSNWSN Kevin Malone net −$3.2M net +0.0

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $20M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 1996 odds 15% → 16% (+1.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Omar DaalP·24y·L/L

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

-0.06/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

LADLAD Fred Claire net +$3.2M net +0.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $5M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 1996 odds 14% → 13% (-1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rick Clelland

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.