NYY⇄COL

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net +$1.6M net +0.2

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2019 odds 83% → 84% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Alfredo GarciaP·45y·R/R

−$3.4M−$3.4M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#530 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.17 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

COLCOL Jeff Bridich net −$1.6M net -0.2

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $21M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.9 ± 3 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2019 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Joe HarveyP·27y·R/R

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.9± 3 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#572 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.79 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.