PIT⇄SDP

PITPIT Syd Thrift net +$12.8M net +2.0

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $38M expected surplus · +$4.8M realized received 0.3 ± 5 expected · 2.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 1986 odds 7% → 8% (+1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bob PattersonP·27y·R/L

−$2.9M−$2.9M± $38M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 0.3± 5 exp WARrealized 2.9

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.6/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.07/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.73 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Jack McKeon net −$12.8M net -2.0

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $37M expected surplus · −$8.0M realized received 0.0 ± 5 expected · 0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 1986 odds 2% → 2% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Marvell WynneOF·26y·L/L

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $37M exp surplusrealized −$8.0M 0.0± 5 exp WARrealized 0.9

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.5/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

-0.80/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.