PHI⇄TOR

PHIPHI Pat Gillick net −$4.0M net +0.5

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $0M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2008 odds 78% → 79% (+0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt StairsDH/OF·40y·L/R

−$3.2M−$3.2M± $0M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

0.70/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

TORTOR JP Ricciardi net +$4.0M net -0.5

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.6 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2008 odds 37% → 36% (-1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Fabio CastroP·23y·L/L

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.6± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.15/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.