BOS⇄SEA

BOSBOS Dan Duquette net +$164.0M net +39.0

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $36M expected surplus · +$148.8M realized received 3.2 ± 4 expected · 39.6 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Jason VaritekC·25y·B/R

+$3.8M+$3.8M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$42.4M 2.0± 3 exp WARrealized 21.2

Prior

#14 overall draft pick → 0.36/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.36/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Derek LoweP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$106.4M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 18.4

Prior

#214 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Woody Woodward net −$164.0M net -39.0

received −$8.0M−$8.0M ± $14M expected surplus · −$15.2M realized received 1.3 ± 2 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Heathcliff SlocumbP·31y·R/R

−$7.9M−$7.9M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$15.2M 1.3± 2 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

0.94/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.