PHI⇄SDP

PHIPHI Pat Gillick net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $34M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.6 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Matt ThayerCF·24y·R/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#912 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Trey JohnstonC·20y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#523 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $10M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.4 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Aquilino LópezP·31y·R/R

−$0.2M−$0.2M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.4± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.27/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.48 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.