CHW⇄PHI

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net +$0.8M net +0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $5M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2018 odds 1% → 1% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Felix Paulino

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

PHIPHI Matt Klentak net −$0.8M net -0.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $10M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.7 ± 1 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2018 odds 10% → 9% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Luis AvilánP·28y·L/L

+$2.2M+$2.2M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.7± 1 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

0.36/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.