TEX⇄DET

TEXTEX Tom Grieve net +$2.4M net +0.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $15M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 1987 odds 1% → 2% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dario Guzman

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $15M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Bill Lajoie net −$2.4M net -0.3

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $46M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.2 ± 6 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 1987 odds 85% → 84% (-0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Orlando MercadoC·25y·R/R

−$3.4M−$3.4M± $46M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.2± 6 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.6/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.04/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.