TOR⇄CHW

TORTOR Pat Gillick net +$8.0M net +1.7

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $16M expected surplus · +$8.0M realized received 0.7 ± 2 expected · 1.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 1994 odds 3% → 4% (+1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike HuffOF·30y·R/R

+$2.4M+$2.4M± $16M exp surplusrealized +$8.0M 0.7± 2 exp WARrealized 1.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.35/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.68 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Ron Schueler net −$8.0M net -1.7

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.8 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 1994 odds 96% → 94% (-2.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Domingo Martínez1B·28y·R/R

+$4.3M+$4.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.8± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.4/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.42/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.84 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.