CLE⇄WSN

CLECLE John Hart net +$52.0M net +4.2

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $28M expected surplus · +$58.4M realized received 0.0 ± 4 expected · 6.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2001 odds 68% → 69% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Milton BradleyOF·23y·B/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$58.4M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized 6.2

Prior

Composite #36.0 pedigree (Baseball America #36 (2000)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.34/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.8/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

-0.26/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Jim Beattie net −$52.0M net -4.2

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $21M expected surplus · +$6.4M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 2.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2001 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Zach DayP·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$6.4M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 2.0

Prior

#149 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.