TEX⇄CLE

TEXTEX Douglas Melvin net +$6.4M net +1.9

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $9M expected surplus · +$6.4M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 1.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 1995 odds 6% → 7% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dennis CookP·32y·L/L

−$2.5M−$2.5M± $9M exp surplusrealized +$6.4M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 1.9

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

0.17/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.67 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE John Hart net −$6.4M net -1.9

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $10M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 1995 odds 95% → 95% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Guillermo Mercedes

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.