SDP⇄ARI

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net +$48.0M net +5.0

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $18M expected surplus · +$46.4M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · 5.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2007 odds 29% → 34% (+4.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Scott HairstonOF·27y·R/R

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$46.4M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized 5.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.0/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

-0.11/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Josh Byrnes net −$48.0M net -5.0

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $21M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.1 ± 3 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2007 odds 3% → 3% (-0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Leo RosalesP·26y·R/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.1± 3 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

#581 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.