TOR⇄ARI

TORTOR JP Ricciardi net +$8.8M net +0.3

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2008 odds 35% → 36% (+1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chad BeckP·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#417 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Josh Byrnes net −$8.8M net -0.3

received +$0.0M−$1.6M ± $14M expected surplus · −$9.6M realized received 1.8 ± 2 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2008 odds 13% → 12% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

David EcksteinSS·33y·R/R

+$0.0M−$1.7M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$9.6M 1.8± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.8/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

1.26/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.