BAL⇄PHI

BALBAL Roland Hemond net +$1.6M net +0.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $29M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.1 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 1992 odds 60% → 58% (-2.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Steve Scarsone2B/3B·26y·R/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $29M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.1± 4 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

PHIPHI Lee Thomas net −$1.6M net -0.1

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $24M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 1992 odds 6% → 6% (+0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Juan Bell2B/SS·24y·B/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $24M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.1/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

-0.66/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.