CLE⇄TEX

CLECLE Mark Shapiro net +$125.6M net +18.0

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $30M expected surplus · +$152.0M realized received 2.2 ± 4 expected · 22.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2003 odds 3% → 3% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Travis HafnerDH·26y·L/R

+$7.8M+$7.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$153.6M 2.2± 2 exp WARrealized 22.3

Prior

Composite #46.0 pedigree (Baseball America #46 (2003)) → 0.56/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.7/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.42/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Aaron MyetteP·25y·R/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#43 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.01/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX John Hart net −$125.6M net -18.0

received +$32.8M+$32.8M ± $55M expected surplus · +$26.4M realized received 5.5 ± 7 expected · 4.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2003 odds 6% → 5% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ryan DreseP·27y·R/R

+$30.2M+$30.2M± $53M exp surplusrealized +$30.4M 4.4± 7 exp WARrealized 4.1

Prior

#121 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.91/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Einar DíazC·30y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $17M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.62/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.